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Good evening, everyone! We’ve had a rough week (as expected). 😅 

With a few weeks remaining for September, we’ve got lots more things to pay attention to, including the Fed Rate cut.

👇️ There've been some changes since Monday, here’s our analysis. 👇️ 

This Week’s Juice 🧃

• 🪙 Bitcoin hits our $54k Weekly Target 🎯 
• 🪙 Altcoin Performance against BTC heading for a change in market structure since 2021 🔥
• 📉 Fed Official says “odds of a recession are rising" 👀 
• 🏦 Economy: Unemployment Rate @ 4.2% (expected 4.2%) ✅ 
• 🏦 Economy: Non-Farm Payrolls @ 142K (expected 160K) ❌

What’s on today?

🔷 Market Analysis ✨

🔷 Our portfolio allocation strategy 📈

🔷 Yield Farming Opportunities 🚜🥛

🔷 VC Investments & Token Unlocks 🪙

Got any suggestions? Send us a message!

Getting up to speed! ⭐

Economic Reports 📉 

Report

Result

What does this mean for crypto/economy?

Unemployment Rate

As expected @ 4.2%

A reversal of unemployment from the previous 4.3% shows that the risks of a recession (from this tunnelled view) may not be as bad.

Either way, due to other conditions, this will not impact potential rate cuts this year.

Non-Farm Payroll

Under expected by 18K 🐔 @ 142K

Low NFP marks slower job growth meaning less inflationary pressure on wages.

While we aren’t getting as low of a reading as last month, it’s clear that there may still be issues with growth in the job market.

Expected Rate Cut for September | Is it up only now? ✂️ 

• Updated: We’re most likely to get a 25bps rate cut this month, with a potential further 25-50bps rate cut in November. 👀 
• We’re preparing for a new liquidity cycle now, however, this doesn’t mean the next few months will be easy.
• With US Elections coming through, geopolitical tensions high, and a potentially unstable economy, it may take a few months for things to pick up in the crypto world.

US Recession incoming? Can we get a soft landing?

A Fed Official, Goolsbee, has mentioned there is an increased risk of a recession in the US.

This could mean that the rate cut now, before a recession, may be an attempt to achieve a soft landing by forcing the liquidity cycle.

However, while this may be the Fed’s favoured approach, it doesn’t always end up very well.

The Stock Market is over-extended, and seemingly for the past couple of years, there has been a need for a reset.

We can see the increasing fears as the stock market drops this week, with the S&P 500 coming in 4.3% down, not too different from our beloved “Black Monday” back in August.

We’re suspicious of these policy interventions by the Fed as we may potentially see further leverage unwinding in the stock market.

It’s important to not ignore the potential for a recession.

S&P500 | Targets for a “Doomsday” Scenario

While crypto is not directly correlated with the S&P500, a larger stock market drop would lead to significant downturns in the crypto market.

The S&P500 usually runs on a cycle, like most markets. With the current highs in, we’d be expecting a potential rally down towards the 4750 level or even as low as 4,500.

This would be confirmed by a recession or significant issues with the economy following this rate cut. It doesn’t mean it will happen, but let’s be honest, it’s overextended, and the US Economy doesn’t reflect this in the slightest; there needs to be a stock market reset.

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Market Analysis ✨

The downtrend continues as the conspicuous “red” September comes into play. Let’s check out what’s going on! 👀 

BTC Analysis

• We’ve formed a medium-term downtrend in BTC, heading towards August lows. 👀 
• It seems like the market is not taking September’s uncertainty lightly.
• Due to the significant downturn in the past few days with little demand to push for retracements towards the upside, we can see us making lower lows within the next few days.
• However, BTC is already down more than the average September drop, so we may see more “conservative” drops made from here.

Looking at the upside 📈 🚀

• Similar to last week, we’re looking at any long positions being tight to take profits on retracements towards the downside, nothing more. (unless you are accumulating spot or low-leverage BTC). 👈️ 
• Liquidation Magnet Level 🧲 57k
• Primary Targets: 55k (Daily VWAP), 57k (Weekly/Monthly VWAP), 58.2k
• Currently, we’d be against taking longs until we make a significant low below $50.7k as it is a key level. (Swing Failure Pattern)
• This would be especially key if we get a 4H close below our “golden pocket” range displayed on our charts.

Looking at the downside 📉 👀 

• No significant liquidity levels to the downside.
• This shows that there is little demand for longing around this area, which may justify a further drop until this demand is found (Action Theory)
• However, if we were to fail to find demand around our current low (50.7k), we would look for a leap lower due to a lack of liquidity.
• Primary Targets: 50.7k, 44k, 41.6k

Note: It’s important that you don’t place unnecessary longs.

Use our key levels as a guide for important reaction zones which are good opportunities.

Ethereum Analysis

• Despite altcoins performing well in the past couple of days, Ethereum has done the complete opposite of “well”.
• We have broken our main downside levels for the week, and now are targeting a swing failure of the 2,120 low. This would be the next potential long entry.

Note: In a market like this, you should focus on making your short-term trades as tight as possible.

Implement stop-losses, conservative profit levels. Add time-limits etc.

Or… just buy Spot ETH and don’t worry about the market pressure!

Altcoin Analysis

• Finally, an interesting week for the world of altcoins. We’re starting to see a change in trend in outperformance against BTC. 🚀 
• We’re hoping to make a higher high within the next week which would push us to look at larger altcoin strategies towards the end of the year as opposed to being focused solely on blue-chip investments in the short-term.

PokPok: Introducing $PEGG

PokPok has launched its $PEGG token this week! We’ll be carrying out some research with them over the coming weeks and provide an in-depth analysis, however, we’d like to show off some of their achievements so far, and why this could be a great opportunity for everyone!

As a brand new project, PokPok boasts a ~$140k TVL within the first two days of launching!

We believe that the >240% APR on their pool could offer significant returns in the coming months as the platform launches towards the end of September.

As the $PEGG token enters its first weeks of price discovery, it’s important to understand that market dynamics may end up pricing the project differently to its current “discovery” price.

However, with a market cap of $7.5m, and being the world's first Gamified Options platform, we can easily expect a valuation of at least $50m within 6 months of launching their platform. 🔥 🔥 🔥 

We’re working together with PokPok to provide effective marketing through their newsletter by giving real value to the community!

➡️ Stake your $PEGG here!

We’ll provide an in-depth analysis of the $PEGG token upon the PokPok platform launch. Stay tuned!

Investment Strategy 📈

We’re making developments in our Portfolio Allocation strategy. Currently, we’re looking to add risk factors to our allocation types which allows us to more specifically allocate investments.

We’ve noticed that allocating to, for example, Yield Farming may mean many different things.

We can Yield Farm ETH/USDC for very low risk, and low yield, while we could farm a very new project which may have a high yield but pose a greater risk to the portfolio.

This may seem complex, however, in the future we are looking to automate these distinctions via our platform on Tago Research.

We’ve maintained the same allocations, however, added a few risk levels below:

Type

% Allocation

Note/Example

Yield Farming | High Risk

0%

e.g. Low-Medium M.Cap, new farms

Yield Farming | Medium Risk

20%

e.g. Large M.Cap/Blue-chip farms

Short-Term | High Risk

0%

e.g. Altcoin Trading

Short-Term | Medium Risk

20%

e.g. Bluechip Trading (BTC/ETH)

Long-Term | High Risk

8%

e.g. Low-Medium M.Cap

Long-Term | Medium Risk

22%

e.g. BTC, ETH, SOL

Lending | Cash

28%

e.g. USDC Lending

Hedging

2%

e.g. Protective Puts

DeFi & Yield Farming 🚜🥛

Chain Performance

• Top Gainers: Sui remains the highest-performing chain at the moment. Up 54% in TVL and over 60% in token value in the past month!
• Key Insight: The “September Volatility” is reflected through the on-chain flush-out following the crypto market downturn.

Yield Farming Opportunities

1. High Risk/High Yield (by PokPok)

• Pool: PEGG/WETH on Aerodrome (Base)
• Current Yield: 244% APR 🐔
• ➡️ Stake here
• With its first week in action, PokPok Protocol has unleashed the PEGG/WETH liquidity pool, amassing over $130k in TVL within a few days!
• Chances are you’re here for the future of PokPok. Participating in this pool would give you this chance, an investment in the World’s First Gamified Options Protocol
• We’ll be doing a full analysis on $PEGG soon. 👀 

2. Medium Risk

• Pool: cbETH (Coinbase Staked Wrapped ETH) on Radiant Capital (Base)
• Current Yield: 35.6% APR 👀 
• ➡️ Stake here
• Usually, ETH staking yields are up to 5%. With Radiant, you can stake cbETH restaked ETH for over 30% yield. That is insane!

3. Stable/Low Risk

• Pool: USDC on Radiant Capital (Base)
• Current Yield: 25.51% APR 🚀 
• ➡️ Stake here
• With stablecoin yields coming down to ~12% recently, a yield above 20% is an awesome opportunity.
• It’s important to keep an eye out for the best stablecoin pools to ensure your cash reserves are working for you the hardest!
• It’s great that on Base, due to extremely low fees, we can afford to move our stables around a lot (with almost no cost)!

Altcoin Zone 🪙

Upcoming Token Unlocks

• Another reminder that $WLD and $XAI are inflating at an extreme rate. We’d suggest staying away from these completely, especially when liquidity is low in the market.
• $SDEX - 8 September 2024 - 10.9% of M.Cap ($7.75m) 🔴🔴🔴
• $MOCA - 11 September 2024 - 15.6% of M.Cap ($16.68m) 🔴🔴🔴
• $AGI - 11 September 2024 - 6.27% of M.Cap ($7.36m) 🔴

VC Investment Highlights

Introducing… Balance

Gaming is a massive industry in crypto (and in general, of course).

There are still difficulties in creating a real network for on-chain gaming, especially in the interoperability of assets between games.

Companies like Ethlas are bringing interoperability in skills and experience within the gaming space, now companies like Balance are also bringing this to assets on gaming platforms across multiple networks.

Project: Balance

Website: https://balance.fun/

Balance is creating a zkEVM which supports Digital Identity, Asset Management across chains and Socialisation through network avatars for gamers.

They’ve raised $30m from top-tier VCs such as A16Z and Animoca Brands, both being key players in the Crypto Gaming VC field!

How can I invest in this?

Balance is doing an Airdrop for its token through Social tasks on its X/Social Media.

Their token has not been launched yet, however, this would be the easiest way to gain an immediate stake in the platform.

We suggest keeping an eye out for potential token launches ahead!

We’re working on creating a structured system for our DeFi & Altcoin sections, so we want your feedback on which altcoins or sectors you’re most interested in. This allows us to prioritise your interests and find the best opportunities for you to dive right into!

How much of your portfolio do you allocate to altcoins?

Tell us a bit about your allocations and then submit your favourite alts/sectors!

I'm a BTC Maxi, sorry! 0-20% 20-50% 50-90% What's Bitcoin? My middle name is ALTS!

Thanks for reading today’s publication! We crave your feedback — got any suggestions for a specific analysis or questions for us?

Get in touch with at contact@tagoresearch.com or pop us a message on X at @tagoresearch.

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Disclaimer: The PokPok Pulse newsletter and any curated information provided by Tago Research are not intended as Financial Advice but as educational content for insights into the crypto market. Only invest what you can afford to lose. We are not liable for any losses incurred.