Executive Summary 📊

I hope everyone is enjoying their weekend! This week was pretty intense for most of us in the crypto space. With BTC failing to hold that local support we mentioned on Monday, we were adverse to placing new longs, and even considering the current price action, we should be very careful where we enter!

We saw BTC fall below the 10/10 lows, frontrunning our 98K fib support. We still think that an SFP can be made by cutting below 98K, so we prefer to wait for them to enter higher conviction positions. This is an SFP of the June low.

Altcoins, however, have held up extremely well during this week, with alts rising ~7% relative to BTC. We see this as the beginning of another rally on alts – strong support following BTC's weakness at the lows.

Risk/Reward for trading BTC is similar to ETH right now, so we have no specific preference, although BTC will be less volatile to trade.

Action Plan Review 📊

• The Bureau of Labour Statistics is still closed due to the government shutdown.

• Quick SP500 Review: This may impact crypto markets. Expecting a rise to ~3800 for SP500, followed by consolidation and skew towards the downside. Following our cractal but in a slightly more compressed form, we do see much larger downside playing out for equities going into 2026.

Market Analysis ✨

BTC Analysis

• Current ideas + reasoning
  • The current market situation from a macro standpoint is bearish if we fail below 98K on the weekly.
  • Locally, we're seeing open interest coming in at the low, but mostly from shorts building up, which may give us an edge towards a short squeeze; however, price must break above 104K to squeeze shorts. We're also seeing not much more of a push up in terms of Spot CVD, so we're not seeing large participants step into new long positions just yet.
  • The order flow does pose a very good opportunity for a long towards the lows, preferably at an SFP of the 98K June low, perhaps extending towards 97K. This would be a major "stop loss" scenario for many people, which will allow institutions to enter (and us).
  • Order book clustering is occurring at 110K, exactly where our tPOC is, so this is where we can see a relief rally reversing to, giving us an ~12% expected return this month if we get it right.
  • It's possible that the price action we're seeing now is the same as if we didn't get the October 10 crash, just with more shakeups in Open Interest.
• Bias & what would change it
  • (locally) Neutral-Bullish. We want to wait for Monday, when we can see 98K being re-tested, allowing us to swing into new longs. Clearly looking for longs after reaching monthly extremes.
  • Alternatively, as the current value area develops, we can consider entering partial long positions anywhere under 112K, and doubling down if we break above 114K, but this reduces our expected return, and we'd likely be involved in a weekend chop, so we'd prefer to see Monday's US Open.
  • More holistically, if we retrace to 110K, we need to consider possible shorts in a bearish scenario. If there's weakness at the local high, we could see ourselves coming back down to the lows, targeting as low as 90K.
• Preferred setups
  • Enter longs @ 97-98K (or up to 102K for smaller positions) -> exit @ 110K
  • Enter shorts on resistance @ 110K (DO NOT SHORT CURRENT LOWS, High Risk!)

Ethereum Analysis

• Current ideas + reasoning
  • We saw some extreme volatility on the Tuesday crash for ETH, coming down 10% below the 10/10 lows. We've now hit the target for downside! Certainly, we're having a more sensitive structure as current lows are marking an SFP of August lows.
  • However, August lows had such a small time-based value area. If BTC does come back to the lows to 98K, if ETH/BTC strength does not continue, we could see ETH fall another 20% towards 2700, eating into all the fair value gaps we have from the July rally. The initial target would be 2800.
  • Note: It's usually more difficult for price to hold around support/resistance if there's a small value area around it.
  • On the other hand, looking at altcoin performance as well, if ETH/BTC does hold up, we could move in line with BTC, targeting the tPOC at 3880.
  • Similar R/R when looking at BTC. In some ways, invalidation for longs on ETH is much clearer.
• Bias & what would change it
  • We want to look for new longs, especially if we continue holding above the current value area. We're not looking for any further SFPs for ETH. Any lower lows are extremely risky to take.
  • Long ideas begin from entering now above 3300. If we close below on a 4H, we'll be waiting it out, especially when comparing price action to BTC, which is likely to reverse back to the lows.
• Preferred setups
  • Long current prices after we see some strength above 3350 VAL – SL 4H close below 3250 – TP 3650, 3880.
  • Consider shorts at weakness @ 3650, 3880.

Altcoin Analysis

• What's new
  • Our predictions for Altcoin Performance have been pretty much spot on over the past two months!
  • It's really exciting to use this index measurement since we can use it to navigate trading in altcoins across the board. It's very difficult to predict altcoin movement solely by looking at BTC or ETH.
  • Our TAGO Ratio is also projecting further upside, although we feel this will be tethered towards 9.5M for the next couple of weeks until we see blue chips stabilise.

• Overall altcoin season index has reset, so we should start seeing this pick up a little during December.

• There have been some isolated instances, such as Z Cash ($ZEC), which may have skewed altcoin performance to the upside, with ZEC rising by ~11x since the start of October, achieving a peak yesterday after rising 40%.
  • This rise occurred due to the recent trend around privacy coins once again and ZKP, plus new listings on Perp exchanges, which added to the fire. Some meme-coin like price action right there!

Investment Strategy 📈

• No changes in our allocations this week.
• It's a good time to see mid-November as a time to allocate further into altcoins since our downside targets have been hit – just beware of the overall BTC market structure, that is the only other variable to be aware of.

Current portfolio allocation:

👑 Professional Reminder