🚀 Genesis of the PULSE - A wave of BULLISH sentiment
Biden drops out, Ethereum Spot ETF, and a load of updates to make your heart buzz
Introducing PokPok Pulse 🔥
🚀 Welcome to the Genesis of Pulse Newsletter! 🎉
Buckle up, crypto enthusiasts! We're about to take you on a wild ride through the DeFi jungle.
Pulse is your new secret weapon, powered by Tago Research, a DeFi Research company focused on crypto strategy and long-term growth.
We're not just another crypto newsletter but your personal hedge fund builders, focused on long-term growth and epic gains.
What's on the menu? 🍽️
- Hot-off-the-press market news 🔥
- Macro analysis that'll make your brain tingle 🧠
- Ninja-level strategy & risk management 🥷
- DeFi & yield farming secrets 🌾
- Options trading insights that'll make you feel like a Wall Street pro 📈
- Altcoin deep dives (we find the gems, so you don't have to) 💎
Here's the deal: We want Pulse to be your weekly crypto adrenaline shot. Fun, useful, and addictive.
So, hit us with your feedback! Let's make this newsletter as epic as your future gains.💰
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Some quick housekeeping — this is our schedule from now on, so keep your eyes peeled! 👀 👀
Monday
Friday
What to expect this week
In-depth weekly analysis
( Micro Lectures )
DeFi + all the good stuff
Before we get started…
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- Clarity on timelines, economics, $POK, and those mysterious Golden Eggs
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WHAT’S HAPPENING? ⌛️
While it’s almost halfway through the week for our first publication - there’s so much going on, we’re not lacking things to chat about!
We’ll get into some detailed analysis on Friday, here’s the rollup for the week:
- First week of Ethereum Spot ETF continues (>$1B Volume in 4 Hours!) 🔷
- US President Biden drops out of presidential race
- Trump considers BTC as a Federal Reserve 🏦
- Mt Gox Distributions Initiated (~$5.5B in BTC remaining from July to October 2024) 💸
- (25-27 July) BTC Nashville 2024 looms ahead 🤑
- (25 July) US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv 📊
- (26 July) US Core PCE Index YoY 📊
- STRATEGY IDEA: How might you use Options to play this market?
Today’s Micro-Lecture: A brief Introduction to the personal Hedge Fund philosophy
Got a lecture idea? Let us know!
Potential Impacts ⭐️
Ethereum Spot ETF 🎇
Over $1B of total volume was recorded in just 4 hours of trading (~23% of BTC Spot ETF’s first day) and Net Inflows of $106.7m for the trading day. This is massive for the crypto space!
We expect a possible retracement before new highs next month.
Because of this, the next few days will be extremely volatile — I recommend against making any major decisions, or use of leverage.
We believe that ETH entering the Spot ETF game brings up new opportunities for DeFi by giving the space much more exposure to major institutions — this is a catalyst for DeFi adoption.
Alternative scenario: ETH investors stick to CEX/DEXs for Web3 philosophy.
Key takeaways:
- A major catalyst for DeFi adoption
- Watching B2B/B2C DeFi Credit, Lending & Neobanks
- Volatility expected - avoid major moves & leverage
- Bullish outlook for summer/autumn 🔥
Due to limited data, we’re still waiting on more trading days for this ETF to gauge any real demand, but so far so good!
Stay tuned for more details! 👀
Pro Tip: Unlike BTC ETF, ETH's Grayscale discount narrowed pre-launch. Less sell pressure from this is expected.
Grayscale BTC ETF is converting to a Spot ETF (although with a larger fee) which shows their intent to remain competitive in the crypto ETF market.
President Biden Exits the Presidential Race 👀
Biden dropped out from the race on 21 July — this was expected, but could lead to some key changes to crypto!
Kamala Harris will likely be chosen as his replacement for the Democratic party. While Trump remains in the lead, the markets were shaken due to the possible uncertainty!
There have been reports of Mrs Harris meeting with Mark Cuban, expressing an open stance towards crypto. 🚀
Either way, polls remain strong for Trump, so we could almost assume a “crypto victory” this year!
The market still drives to the beat of the presidential race, so it’s important to stay informed!
Donald Trump’s Bitcoin “Strategy” 💵 💵 💵
Recently, there have been talks about Trump announcing a BTC Reserve Strategy at the Bitcoin Nashville running from 25 July to 27 July!
Trump has emphasised that he wants the USA to be the future of Crypto and recently has been in direct communication with the likes of JD Vance and Elon Musk who are expressing a key interest in crypto.
While these are only rumours, it has gotten a lot of hype! And we must say, this would change EVERYTHING for crypto.
Let’s keep it cool though and not assume anything — but it’s worth mentioning a few potential impacts if this DOES happen…
Possible Impacts of a Bitcoin Strategy 🪙
- Encourages other economies to follow suit — hence establishing BTC as a key global commodity
- Regulatory hurdles to jump over — if passed, destruction of the current crypto regulatory scrutiny
- BTC price surging to unimaginable levels 🚀
- Key hedge against inflation due to limited supply
- May attract further capital to the US and establish the USA as the world crypto hub (especially in the current “Millionaire Exodus” climate) — potential GDP boost?
- Global competition of Bitcoin accumulation across Governments and Institutions
Bitcoin Nashville 2024 (25 July - 27 July)
The Bitcoin Conference is by far the LARGEST crypto conference of the year. This is the kind of event where you might spot BTC Lambos on the driveway and money printers in the bathrooms! 👀
We’ve got some CRAZY speakers this year — we think they could really make a dent given the mountain-load of events that have happened thus far this year:
Having such a large part of the key speakers not only being Presidential Candidates for the US Elections but also Senators, we can see just how far we’ve come as a global community — the need for Bitcoin is growing, exponentially!
Mt Gox Distributions have begun 🖨️
So far, over $3B in BTC has been distributed to creditors leaving around $5.5B remaining to be distributed. As of 23 July, Kraken distributions have been initiated.
We expect price action to be absorbed over this period. Similar to the German Government selling, past price dumps can be traced down to 90% panic rather than actual liquidity moving around.
BTC is more than enough liquid to withstand this sell pressure. No need to make any big decisions about this. Looking ahead towards the end of the year, this is a speck of dust.
US Economic Events this week 📊
A few key economic events are coming up this week. We’re looking for readings that further confirm a reduction in interest rates so we can start the money printer ASAP!
- (25 July) US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Advance
- What this means: Analyses economic growth by quarter. Stronger growth can be positive for crypto.
- Prior/Forecast: 0.1% Prior, 0.4% Forecast
- Idea: An under-expected reading could further incentivise a reduction in interest rates in September.
- (26 July) US Core PCE Index YoY
- What this means: Tracks consumer spending by year (excluding food and energy as they are more volatile).
- Prior/Forecast: 1.4% Prior, 1.9% Forecast
- Idea: An under-expected reading signals underlying inflationary pressures have decreased. This may result in an earlier reduction in interest rates.
We suggest against using leverage such as futures when trading these events. They’re higher risk than reward due to their often illogical nature of spinning the markets!
A little note on Strategy — how can we use Options to respond to all this?
Things have been getting pretty heated for crypto (in a good way!) — maybe it’s time to open up some longs?
We’ve suggested against short-term futures positions during these news announcements, but we’re forgetting one thing — Options!
We could use Options as a tool for longer-term plays, which would lead us unaffected by these short-term squiggles. 😁
A good simple strategy would be to Long Calls expiring on 8 November 2024.
Comparing Implied Volatility with BTC at previous prices gives us a holistic insight into how expensive an option is (due to pricing largely using volatility).
- Options prices up due to increased I.V. - bullish indicator
- ATM Nov calls: Safer play, higher premium
- OTM Nov calls (e.g., 70k strike): Cheaper, Higher risk, more leverage
The 70k zone is a crucial resistance, breaking it would likely lead to new ATHs. OTM options offer cheaper entries with higher potential returns.
Remember: BTC moves are typically large. OTM options could capitalise on this but come with higher risk, hence their lower pricing.
Micro-Lecture 📝
Almost every week, we intend to dedicate a section of Monday’s Pulse Publication to a new idea which we think you might find useful or, at the very least, interesting!
Got any cool ideas? We’d love to include you in this section! Send us a DM @tagoresearch and we’ll be in touch!
A brief Introduction to the personal Hedge Fund philosophy
We’ve decided to start our first Micro-Lecture with a short introduction of our primary philosophy at Tago Research — one that we’ll aim to focus on together.
❝
Run your crypto portfolio as if it were your very own Hedge Fund
The crypto space is renowned for degen plays — it has been really difficult to see much credibility in investing in it from an institutional standpoint (other than recently).
But what if we understand that there’s a way to limit the “degen” take on an institutional perspective ourselves?
No matter how large or small of a portfolio you have — you can apply a serious mindset towards it; not only will it probably make you more money than losing it all on a PEPE meme, but it’ll likely make you a whole load smarter, too!
What if whenever we had a key decision to make, we asked ourselves, “What would a hedge fund do?". Applying this principle soon turns into “What would I do?” as you wake yourself up!
There are a whole load of strategies and practices, which aren’t that difficult to implement, which would take your game to the next level!
We’re here to support you in this mindset and strategy development.
That’s all for today’s Micro-Lecture! We’ll carry this on later when your mind hasn’t just been blasted with a ton of info. 🤣
We’re just glad you’ve joined us at PokPok Pulse and that we have the opportunity to write to such amazing folks!
A warm thank you from the team at PokPok and Tago Research!
Thanks for reading today’s publication! We crave your feedback — got any suggestions or questions for us?
Get in touch with at contact@tagoresearch.com or pop us a message on X at @tagoresearch.
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Disclaimer: The PokPok Pulse newsletter and any curated information provided by Tago Research are not intended as Financial Advice but as educational content for insights into the crypto market. Only invest what you can afford to lose. We are not liable for any losses incurred.