Hey PokPok Fam! What a rush! 😆 

If you weren’t glued to the markets last Friday, we’re not sure what kind of crypto bull you are!

We’re breaking out, things are getting wild.🃏 

Is this the swing to 80k we’ve been waiting for? Let’s find out! 🤘 

WHAT’S HAPPENING? ⌛️

• 🚀 PlanB’s 200WMA Bull Thesis 🔡 
• 👮 An attack on free speech? TON drops >20% as Telegram CEO Arrested ⭕️ 
• 🗳️ Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exits the presidential race and supports Trump 🏇 
• (August 29) GDP Growth Rate QoQ (2nd Estimate)🚨
• (August 30) Core PCE Price Index MoM 🚨

Coming up this week ⭐️

(August 29) GDP Growth Rate QoQ (2nd Estimate)

• What GDP Growth means: GDP Growth Rate is one of the staple indicators for the Fed in understanding the growth of the US economy. More growth = more appetite for risk (yes, like Bitcoin 😄). The converse would mean the opposite, less appetite for risk. Robust GDP Growth should be coupled with lowering inflation to reduce risks of further economic tightening.
• Prior/Forecast: 1.4% Prior / 2.8% Forecast 🔥 

(August 30) Core PCE Price Index MoM

• What Core PCE means: Core PCE represents Personal Consumption Expenditures excluding Food/Energy prices and is the preferred fed inflation gauge. Lower PCE = Less Inflation (and vice versa).
• Prior/Forecast: 0.2% Prior / 0.2% Forecast 🤩

Thesis on Economic Reports

• Bullish Thesis:
  •  Over-expected GDP Growth results in a more risk-on economy, especially as interest rate cuts are right around the corner. This economic strengthening could lead to crypto and stock market continuations to the upside. 🚀 
  • This should be bundled with an under-expected Core CPE report to show further easing inflation during this growth.
• Bearish Thesis:
  • Conversely, an under-expected GDP Growth Rate may create fear around the next interest-rate cut as a potential signal of a weakening economy, which would lead to retracements in the markets over the next few months. 👀 
  • Additionally, an over-expected Core PCE (which we find unlikely would result in Powell having second thoughts on carrying out his new dovish position in economic policy which may extend the market’s lack of liquidity for a longer period.

Telegram CEO Arrested. Does this present an Opportunity?

On Saturday evening, Pavel Durov, the CEO of Telegram, was arrested in France due to alleged complicity in drug trafficking, child exploitation and fraud.

The media has taken this as an attempt to shut Telegram down and block free speech. So far there is no evidence of the CEO participating in any criminal acts, except offering a platform for users to express free speech.

However, free speech should be under the bounds of criminal law, so this case will be debatable due to Pavel Durov’s lack of cooperation with the police on previous occasions.

TON sunk over 20% as the news was announced due to the potential uncertainty of the platform’s future.

We do see this as a potential opportunity as TON may develop to be the “free speech” token. Crypto Twitter/X has already reacted to this by pursuing a “Resistance Movement” against those trying to block free speech.

Resistance and Information (such as free speech) is often Antifragile. The more pressure there is against it, the stronger it becomes. This is why we have civil revolutions.

Hence, is TON is to become the “revolution” token of free speech, it may provide a medium-term buying opportunity as this Telegram case plays out and for such similar events which may seem to be an attempt of censorship.

Read more about Antifragility from Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book “Anti-fragile”.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exits the race and joins Trump.

With 72 days to go for the US Election, things are getting heated. RFK Jr. just removed himself from the presidential ballot and decided to join Trump in his campaign.

With RFK having 1-2% of the forecasted votes before abandoning his campaign, we may see these voters turn to Trump as the new alternative vote. This increase could be enough to push the election on Trump’s side. A smart strategy, indeed.

In the past few weeks, Harris’s advantage has narrowed, and now both sides forecasting a 50/50 probability on Polymarket.

As RFK Jr. and Trump work together, their pro-crypto policies may combine to provide even better benefits for the crypto market, as opposed to the Democrats’ lousy efforts so far.

The Crypto Bull Case

Last weekend was filled with joy for the bulls as Bitcoin broke out of its previous range. However, altcoins continued to underperform.

ETH and SOL are the key highlights that have not yet managed to break out of their range highs properly.

Not a very convincing argument towards going risk-on for altcoins as our altcoin dominance metric also staggers.

The question is, was this just temporary or are we going to continue to the upside? 👀 

Check out our up-to-date Strategy Update for key insights on our take profit levels and trade ideas for the next few weeks! 🐔 

An extremely interesting long-term thesis made by PlanB is based on BTC price action around 200 Week Moving Average where he argues a potential launch in price over the coming months.

This aligns with the few occasions we can number from the previous cycles and does seem like a convincing argument.

So from PlanB’s perspective, yes, the current BTC rally will continue and may result in explosive price action. 👀🔥 

We think it is likely that BTC could see this sort of movement with the combination of US Election and Interest Rate cuts coming up.

Prepare your bags, everyone! 🚀 

However, in terms of validity, it’s important to get into a technical (and perhaps a little sceptical) mindset around statistics.

Not all historical data will represent the future (often little of it does). This does not mean that all technical analysis is useless as many say, it just means that whatever you are using in an attempt to bring order to chaos should be taken with a pinch of salt.

For example, 3 or 4 correlations of MA and Price Actions in the past 10 years are not enough to justify causality.

All it takes is a black swan event such as war to push us to 40k BTC and start the bear market early. This would invalidate any bullish technical analysis. 👀 

Always have a backup plan, implement hedging techniques into your portfolios and know your invalidation points for your positions.

We may be a bummer for not proposing a 100% bullish thesis, but we like to be real and as unbiased as possible.

This is how a hedge fund works: they prepare for all eventualities!

A Quick Strategy Update 💆 

Recap of Friday’s Market Analysis & Key Levels here.

How long will this swing upward last?

• A key indicator of liquidity inflows into the market is a downtrend in USDT Dominance.
• 🚀 Our target for this local crypto rally is a low of 5.11% USDT.D — we will be looking at this level in addition to confluence with our levels on BTC/ETH to take profits from long positions.

BTC Summary

• ESTIMATE: Extrapolating the 5.11% USDT.D low may result in a BTC high ~66.5k.
• TAKE PROFITS: We’re looking to close at least 1/3 of our BTC longs from the lows @ 66.5k. (REMINDER: It’s never wrong to take profits.)
• BTC has hit a critical resistance level — a retracement to the downside may be in play (long opportunities to come).
• POTENTIAL LONG OPPORTUNITY: 61.4k (confluence of levels)
• In the past few hours, we have liquidated over $1B of BTC positions in this wick low. This could be a potential pivot point to the upside, however, it’s difficult to advise any longer-term long positions here. 🚀 

💡Trade Idea: Given a large reaction and incoming short delta, a short ~66.5-67k would be valid.

This would further validate BTCs current macro downtrend. However, we believe it could be near the time for BTC to break above this, so make sure you have tight stop losses in place.

See image below for macro range.

ETH Summary

• Take Profit Targets @ 3,000, 3300, 3535 for our long positions
• Long Entry Opportunities @ 2675, 2600, 2550

💡Trade Idea: Due to current underperformance of ETH against BTC, we may see further bleeding to the downside (assuming BTC contineus to range).

A valid long trade would be @ 2675 with a take profit of the current high and a tight stop loss.

Altcoin Summary

• Altcoins have continued to bleed during this rally, however altcoin dominance has held up considerably well compared to past market movements.
• We continue to increase our confidence as dominance consolidates to the upside coming towards the US interest rate cut.

💡 Potential Opportunity: Base continues to outperform other networks with a significant increase in active wallets across the chain in the last period. As the market takes off, an investment in Base-related bluechip projects such as Aerodrome (AERO) may be a safer bet than other altcoins.

⚡️Warning: Do not take this as a signal to splurge into meme-coins, we focus on value investments.

This also opens up the potential for yield farming and lending. E.g: AERO has 40% APY on ExtraFi Lending.

Thanks for reading today’s publication! We crave your feedback — got any suggestions or questions for us?

Get in touch with at contact@tagoresearch.com or pop us a message on X at @tagoresearch.

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Disclaimer: The PokPok Pulse newsletter and any curated information provided by Tago Research are not intended as Financial Advice but as educational content for insights into the crypto market. Only invest what you can afford to lose. We are not liable for any losses incurred.