Good morning! 🐔

We're back to where we were last Monday, and it's definitely time to call out some similar ideas. 👀

Not really, but the past few days have been quite positive in marking some higher lows within our local range... 🔥

WHAT’S HAPPENING? ⌛️

• Uniswap Launches Unichain: Debates spark; will this kill the ETH Layer 1? 👀
• 🏦 (October 17) Retail Sales 🚨

Coming up this week ⭐️ 

US Economic Events this week 📊

(October 17) Retail Sales MoM

We've been keen to see some prepping up of the consumer economy in the US since interest rates have started to lower.

However, we haven't seen any such reaction (yet). 👀

This week, we're looking for a more improved reading than last month's.

We'd like to see a steady increase coming into 2025 and minimising any negative readings.

• What this means: An aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a month.
• Prior/Forecast:
  • MoM: 0.1% Prior / 0.3% Forecast

The Thesis 👀

• Bullish Thesis: A over-expected Retail Sales would support the idea of a boosting consumer market, which may also be increasing attraction towards risk assets (e.g. BTC). 🔥
• Bearish Thesis: A under-expected reading (or worse, negative), would show that the consumer market is still weakened, (or under serious pressure). Not good for risk-assets. 🐻

Introducing Unichain – Uniswap's next big step (and possible ETH Killer?)

Over the past few days, (some) of Crypto Twitter has gone a little mad about this. Let's just talk about what's going on first.

What's Unichain?

Uniswap (largest DEX on ETH Mainnet), just announced they're releasing their own Layer 2 within the next month or so.

It looks like Uniswap is beginning to realise how important adoption is, and Ethereum could potentially struggle with future adoption given their (still) considerably high transaction fees at times.

This is exactly why Layer 2's on ETH are popping up left, right and centre. 🎉

Unichain is a Layer 2 built on the Superchain, or better yet, the Optimism Framework. (where many massive Layer 2's are being deployed).

This allows for super easy interoperability between Layer 2's and provides a massive opportunity for Uniswap to create an Interoperable Liquidity Chain, away from the mainnet.

Will this kill Ethereum?

This is the big debate. As liquidity starts to move away from the mainnet (where all the large fees are being settled), it could...

• Reduce buying pressure for ETH
• Reduce ETH's inflationary nature due to less network activity (fees accrued)

But is this 100% true? Perhaps not.

• Many of these Layer 2's still use ETH as the primary settlement for much of the liquidity (e.g. TOKENX/ETH pairs). Therefore, there is still much demand.
• As network activity is reduced, Ethereum's network fees will go down with it, which sparks an opportunity for many users (balance of fees/demand over time)
• Developers of ETH may look to further develop its "Infrastructure" name and create additional fees/levies to Layer 2's to maintain its revenue.
  • Layer 2's cannot live without Ethereum. They need it to succeed or at the very least be operationally profitable.

Given this, it's really easy to be confused about whether you should be selling all your ETH or not, but really, it's difficult to make such a black-and-white decision.

To paint the picture for you, this is what we're looking at for ETH/BTC and the areas that spark an interest.

Note that we already hold ETH, so the only thing we can do in a positive scenario is accumulate more.

Should I buy UNI?

We haven't done much research on the UNI token recently, but we'll likely get back to you on Friday for a better decision.

However, if you are looking for possible entries, we've jotted down two key levels to watch out for, the lower level for a great entry (compared to the quoted price), and the above for a take profit (~50% from quoted).

A Quick Strategy Update 💆

👇️ Recap of Friday’s Market Analysis & Key Levels below 👇️

Trump leads @ 53.6% - Will BTC Pump?

Hi everyone. We’ve had an interesting week. 👀 We expected a fairly positive week, which Monday was, however we saw significant resistance from a key level during the move-up. 📉 Let’s discuss what’s in store for the next few weeks! This Week’s Juice * US Election: Polymarket shows a recent surge in

PokPok PulseKevin Apetrei

Moving on to the catchup analysis for the week, we'd like to confirm our statement of bias to the upside, quite similar to last week.

BTC Summary

• A strong reaction from the Macro Range VAL developing a solid close above last Monday's wick high.
• We're aiming for a retest of the current high ~66.5k which could be a potential pivot if there is a lack of delta/demand above this level.
  • If not, we'll be targeting 68k and higher.
• Developing a higher high above 67k is a pivotal moment as it calls for a change in market structure from our long-term downtrend since April.
• We have an open Weekly nPOC ~62k which may be hit at some point this week, however this would be a lower probability as the week opened quite close to it so it could be a frontrunned fill.

• MAIN WEEKLY TARGET: 68,300
• Weekly Targets 👆️66500, 67000, 68300, 69700
• Weekly Targets 👇️ 62000, 59200, 57000

ETH Summary

• We're targeting the previous highs for ETH if we break past the Daily (2580)

• Weekly Targets 👆️ 2580, 2660, 2770, 2850
• Weekly Targets 👇️ 2475, 2440, 2340, 2300

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