Hey, fam! 🔥

Frankly, we think this week will be a bit more like a REAL "Uptober".

Let's get into it.

WHAT’S HAPPENING? ⌛️

• 🏦 (October 9) FOMC Minutes 🚨🚨
• 🏦 (October 10) Inflation Rate MoM/YoY 🚨🚨
• 🏦 (October 11) PPI MoM 🚨

Coming up this week ⭐️ 

US Economic Events this week 📊

After last week's smashing NFP job report, we've hammered in a 25bps cut for November. (bullish, we don't want to cut too fast 🔥)

This week has some key events in store too, but this is more about the peripheral health of the US Economy.

We'd like to see continuous positive reports, but also be slightly paranoid in what the weak areas may be.

(October 9) FOMC Minutes

There won't be much to be surprised about on Wednesday's FOMC Minutes. We're having a 25bps cut, and the confidence from reports indicates this clearly.

This is just a reiteration of confidence by the FOMC.

(October 10) Inflation Rate YoY/MoM

We've usually focused on Core Inflation, but let's take a look at standard Inflation now. While these figures aren't as stable, it's what the Fed is currently focused on.

• What this means: Inflation Rate measured through a basket of goods/services.
• Prior/Forecast:
  • MoM: 0.2% Prior / 0.1% Forecast
  • YoY: 2.5% Prior / 2.3% Forecast

(October 11) PPI MoM

• What this means: Producer Price Inflation (PPI) indicates changes in prices for commodities sold for personal consumption, government, capital expenditure etc. (Non-Retail Inflation)
• Prior/Forecast: 0.2% Prior / 0.1% Forecast

The Thesis 👀

• Bullish Thesis: The market would be extremely positive following an as-expected or under-expected inflation report. This shows the competency of the Fed of meeting the inflation target which allows them to be more confident in Quantitative Easing (releasing liquidity into the market). 🔥
• Bearish Thesis: It's unlikely, but over-expected readings for Inflation and PPI would be worrisome. It's important to maintain this positive trajectory for reducing inflation and fueling economic growth (but not too fast). 🐻

A Quick Strategy Update 💆

👇️ Recap of Friday’s Market Analysis & Key Levels below 👇️

Geopolitical Tensions: Will Crypto Hold?

Hey folks, we’ve had a fairly interesting week. 👀 With rising tensions in the east and not-so-great performance for BTC, it’s time to have a good look at what’s coming this “Uptober”. ⚖️ We’ll keep it as raw as possible, here’s this week’s analysis. 🐔 This Week’s Juice 🧃 * ⚠️ Rising Tensions in the

PokPok PulseKevin Apetrei

We've outlined this as a positive week.

Backtracking a little bit to Friday, we were keen on a reaction for BTC @ 63,400, and we sure did see a huge one.

BTC Summary

• We sliced through the key level, and we're currently looking for support above it. If we see clear support here (which is likely the case), we'll be looking towards the 66k mark again.
• If this fails to happen, and we close a 30-minute candle below both 62.8k and 62.1k, we'd be looking for further downside towards the lows.

• MAIN WEEKLY TARGET: 66,900 (again)
  • As we have a positive bias, the maximum price we'd like to see for any short-term longs this week would be this. (It also provides an opportunity for short trades)

• Weekly Targets 👆️64600, 66500, 66900
• Weekly Targets 👇️ 62100, 61400, 59200

ETH Summary

• For ETH, the support line we'd like to see is the Weekly Level 2470.
• Our line in the sand for a continuation to the upside would be the Weekly nPOC @ 2460.

• As we see further confidence in the altcoin market, a positive week for BTC may lead to strengthening in ETHBTC again which may have a superior yield.
  • The reason the above trade idea isn't short term is because it could easily be a medium-term pivot trade which holds towards a rally of 2800. Of course, we'd prefer this to be without leverage, or at least moving our stop losses into a profit area.
• Weekly Targets 👆️ 2580, 2660, 2770
• Weekly Targets 👇️ 2460, 2400, 2225

Micro-Lecture

⭐ The importance of delaying your risk-taking.

Today we've got a thought-provoking feature to prepare you for the risk-on market in the coming months.

If you're reading this, you're genuinely curious and serious about the markets and how to improve your portfolio management. If you aren't, this might not be for you.

Crypto Twitter and any market research you'll do will all seem time-sensitive.

We all think – now's the time to buy (sell), it's going to take off (crash). 👀

The problem is that these things aren't time-sensitive at all. (unless you're on 50x or 100x leverage and you're about to get zapped by the trading gods.) ⚡

The more spontaneous we make our decision-making, the less valuable our actions. They either make no impact on the portfolio, or they actually hurt it (or your ego for making a wrong decision).

By taking in information, it's important to process and understand it. But not everything matters, since 99% of information is noise. It can't be processed.

If you process something that doesn't matter, it's like playing Russian roulette with your assets.

You can do this: Reduce your information intake (no more CT at 3 am) and allow your mind to process any information.

We urge you to -> consider the information you see about crypto online and implement a rule of thumb, before entering altcoin, yield farm, new opportunity etc.

👉 Wait 48 hours. 👈

If the decision still makes sense after this period, take action.

What this will do it increase the quality of your decision-making. Many times have we made spontaneous decisions which we feel if we'd waited 48 hours or looked into it deeper, we'd want it gone.

You might ask: "Hey, how can I do this for trading when everything is really time-sensitive?"

This is the misconception.

The information has already been processed by the time a trade is made.

The reason we give an analysis on a Friday is to be able to understand the market for the coming week.

This allows 48 hours of consolidation before we assign Trade Ideas. If we feel an analysis we made is no longer meaningful, it'll be discarded.

We'll only focus on what is actionable at the time and has value to our portfolios.

Quite an interesting perspective, no?

Kevin from Tago Research wrote a short thread about this idea a few days ago...

A brief thread on Noise