Hi everyone. We've had an interesting week. 👀

We expected a fairly positive week, which Monday was, however we saw significant resistance from a key level during the move-up. 📉

Let's discuss what's in store for the next few weeks!

This Week’s Juice

• US Election: Polymarket shows a recent surge in Trump win probability ~54 to 56%
• 🏦 Economy: Inflation Rate YoY @ 2.4% (over expected by 0.1%) 👀
• 🏦 Economy: PPI MoM @ 0% (under expected by 0.1%)🔥

Getting up to speed! ⭐

Economic Reports

FOMC Minutes

Wednesday's FOMC Minutes suggested the Fed's focus on a 25bps cut and emphasised that any rate cuts do not imply any weakness in the economy.

👉 Inflation risks are decreasing rapidly.

This is quite ironic following the over-expected Inflation Rate report...

Despite this, we're still favouring a 25bps rate cut.

Interest Rate YoY

• Over expected @ 2.4% (prior 2.5%)

PPI MoM

• Under expected @ 0% (prior 0.2%) 🚀

Trump in the lead – Interpreting Polymarket🔥

The US Election, only a few weeks out, is getting extremely hot. We're using Polymarket for predictions as it seems to be the highest liquidity prediction market and allows for ongoing sentiment.

In the past few days, Trump overtook Harris taking a lead upward of 56%, currently around 53.6%.

This could be due to various impacts, from real sentiment, a larger sample of opinions as we come closer to the end, or purely just endgame volatility.

It's quite exciting to see the fluctuations live, but what's more important is the result, and in the context of PokPok Pulse, how might this impact the market? 👇

Market Analysis ✨

Week Overview

We did initially have quite a positive sentiment for the week, however, given the strong reaction on Monday, rejecting from a key level, it led to a significant down move for the week. 📉

This was accelerated on Thursday as Inflation Rate readings came in higher than expected.

Anyways, despite breaking below key levels, we decided to hold for our weekly target low ~59200 for BTC. This was our final line in the sand before closing out longs.

Turns out we had a strong reaction from there, currently sitting at 63k.

BTC Analysis

• We've developed a more local descending range compared to BTC macro.
  • This is quite important as it may be a key opportunity to break above our current highs towards the end of the month.
  • The devil's advocate would be that it could also lead to an accelerated downturn. For this reason, we'll be imposing a strict limit to long positions for this local range.
• Strict Stop Limit for Longs: 2 consecutive 1-hour candles closing below 60k.
• We're looking for a correction towards 61.4k over the weekend, with a strong reaction to flip towards support. This may allow us to tend towards the 64.5k high next week and potentially break above resistance.

Looking at the upside 📈 🚀

• 64,600 is the main target to beat for the next few days.
  • We could well hit this and continue to range until the week after. However, we've got our eyes on the hundreds of millions in liquidations ~65k, which would be a key level to take profit from (if a strong reaction is found)
• It seems that the market has taken out a lot of liquidity at these lows and it could be more favourable to head back to the upside.
• Liquidation Magnet Levels 🧲 65000, 67000
• Primary Targets: 64600, 67000

Looking at the downside 📉 👀 

• We follow a Weekly nPOC every week as a target to hit. At the moment, we're projecting this to be below us ~62,300. This means that a short opportunity may be available (from Monday), to this level.
  • We'll update this on Monday. Make sure you have a decent Risk/Reward and valid plan before placing any trades.
• If we break below 60.5k, we'd be targeting a lower leg on this descending range, the next target being 57k.
• Primary Targets: 59.2k, 57k, 54k

Ethereum Analysis

• Despite not doing so well in the initial breakdown at the end of September, ETH has been relatively stable for the past two weeks.
  • In fact, we're pretty impressed with altcoins in general! We'll discuss this afterwards.
• If BTC breaks its high, we can see ETH's 0.043 (ETH/BTC) trending up towards a high of at least 2850, assuming BTC matches its previous high.
• ETH has developed a more stable local range this week compared to BTC which does suggest further confidence in performance ver the next few weeks.
• For ETH, we'd be looking to close leveraged longs (we're using COIN-M for ETH Futures too) for two consecutive 1H closes below 2350.
• To the upside: 2500, 2580, 2656
• To the downside @ 2350, 2300, 2120

Altcoin Analysis

• We think it's pretty impressive that we've been discussing altcoin performance on the rise for a few months now and the current charts are really showing this is coming true fairly soon.
• Compared to the past mini boom/bust cycles altcoins have had against BTC, the past 3 months have been extremely stable.
• Even this week, the BTC outperformance may not show on the chart above, but we have seen significant rallies in some alts, or just simply relative strength against the market, which was never there in the first place!

• No this hasn't been the case for the entire altcoin market, and we're likely looking at different alts to you, but it's certainly a massive improvement since July-August where only ~15% of alts were performing better than BTC, now it's ~35%.

Investment Strategy 📈

Recap 1: We're still waiting for...

• A confirmed altcoin outperformance breakout
• A change of macrostructure in Bitcoin (towards the upside)

Recap 2

• In the next 2 weeks before the US Elections, we're looking to fill our 2% hedging allocation through OTM Puts on BTC or ETH.
• We'll update you on this as soon as we make any key decisions. Hedging is an important aspect of any serious portfolio.

There have been no key changes to our allocations. (Last week's allocations)