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Hey there, PokPok fam!

Coming into September, we expect some uncertainty. ⚡️ 

Get your portfolio ready, and have cash in hand — we’re in for a wild ride!

Have a great week! 🚀 

WHAT’S HAPPENING? ⌛️

• 📉 Is the market too complacent — was the “Black Monday” recovery too swift? 👀 
• BTC's Historical September Performance — Will This Kill Us? 😲 
• (September 6) Non-Farm Payrolls 🚨
• (September 6) Unemployment Rate 🚨

Coming up this week ⭐️ 

US Economic Events this week 📊 

(September 6) Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate

• What this means: Non-farm payrolls is a key economic indicator that measures the number of jobs added or lost in the U.S. economy over the previous month, excluding farm workers. The Unemployment Rate is similarly, the amount of unemployment in the economy.
• Prior/Forecast:
  • NFP: 114K Prior / 165K Forecast
  • Unemployment: 4.3% Prior / 4.2% Forecast
• Bullish Thesis: With Interest Rate cuts confirmed for September and GDP Growth coming in at high levels, we’re looking for reports that suggest safe economic growth to prevent panic about the rate cuts due to an unstable economy. 🚀 🌙 
  • An under-expected unemployment rate 👇️ 
  • An over-expected NFP reading 👆️ 
  • These would make the Interest Rate cut more bullish as the stock market (and crypto) can continue its “bull run”
• Bearish Thesis: The converse would lead to worries of an unstable economy throughout the rate cut and may lead to flash crashes across the markets over the next few months. 🐻 

Is the market too complacent — was the “Black Monday” recovery too swift?

A bearish view of the next couple of months would be that the market remains greedy and the recovery from the Japanese Carry Trade crash, namely “Black Monday 2024”, was too fast.

See below the Volatility Index which has already come down from its extremes.

It seems like the Stock market has already forgotten the mass panic last month as the SP500 seeks new highs.

The question is: Is the market shakeout over yet, or is it just beginning?

We think with the importance of the US Elections, the stock market may be forced into a bubble and that the real “flush outs” may not have occurred yet.

This is why we say, always maintain cash reserves — despite our short-term views on what’s next in the market, there’s always the likelihood of impending flash crashes which pose opportunities.

While the stock market “bubble” doesn’t exactly translate into crypto as the SP500 currently has a negative correlation (~-0.24) against BTC (100 Day Avg), a significant crash such as last month’s will have an impact for sure.

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BTC's Historical September Performance — Will This Kill Us? 😲 

There has been a massive craze looking for BTC’s average performance during historical September months.

Let’s just say it hasn’t performed too well…

September has a mean historical average of -4.51%, the lowest of all months.

Why is this? 

During the summer periods, the crypto market is manipulated by algorithms as hot pocket traders are on holiday.

Given summer’s avg. returns, we tend to increase by ~9% during July/August.

In September, the big boys come back to trade, often in profit. As there’s more liquidity in the market, BTC tends to retrace to pre-summer levels to regain stability.

Towards the end of the year, our cumulative (geometric) average is +90.4% for Oct/Nov/Dec.

Are we looking for the same behaviour this year?

Maybe. However, as this is an election year, the market may seem more resilient.

Also, we didn’t have any “gains” over the summer, so there’s NOTHING to retrace.

We believe that September may be a ranging month due to market uncertainty and increased liquidity from big players, which may lead to flash crashes, however, we don’t see this being much of a red month.

Statistical View: Historical data is not the tell all as the BTC market develops and due to increased liquidity, volatility is reduced. Also, there’s not THAT much data go on. 👀 

A simple social media scare shouldn’t force you out of your positions, however as a gentle consideration, have clear invalidation points and make sure you’re ready to enter lower.

Key Idea: September may be a month of uncertainty, however the likelihood of a large crash is low. We’re focused on improving our positioning this month by capturing any lows — we maintain cash reserves at the ready.

We posted this on X the other day — we’ll be discussing this in our Premium Strategy Update next! 🔥 

PokPok’s $PEGG “Golden” Egg Debut 🐔 

This week, PokPok’s $PEGG token will be unleashed, with PEGG/ETH liquidity pools on Aerodrome (Base). 🔥

Tago Research is super excited for this reveal, stay up to date by following @pokpok_io on X!

The incentives on the Liquidity pool are going to be HOT, with large APRs for early providers. 🥵

Not only that, the PokPok team are introducing Revenue Sharing on their Options Protocol, through the burning of $PEGG tokens. 👀 

Now this is a token with real intrinsic value, based on the underlying protocol cash flow!

This is all in preparation for PokPok’s Main Protocol launch this September!

Get more details on the $PEGG token on PokPok’s Official Information Page.

⭐️ Note: Despite Tago Research powering the PokPok Pulse Newsletter, we aim to maintain PokPok related content as unbiased as possible.

We’ll be conducting reviews upon launch and consulting with the main team in order to support the growth of the protocol and pursue investor interests!

Send us a DM on X @tagoresearch if you have any questions or concerns.

A Quick Strategy Update 💆 

Recap of Friday’s Market Analysis & Key Levels here.

Highlights

• Potential instability in the next few weeks as large traders return + rate cuts on the horizon
• We’ve partially deleveraged some of our long positions on BTC/ETH to keep additional cash reserves available for buying flash crashes.
• This allows us to keep longer-term positions open for longer as they are lower risk.

BTC Summary

• We maintain a neutral bias at this moment. We’re looking for a small retrace to test the upside coming into the first week of September.
• Choppiness overall until significant demand is shown to break out of our current range.
• Weekly Target Highs: Retracement to 60k + potential boost towards 61.4k
• Weekly Target Lows: Swing Failure of the 56k low + low target of 54k

💡 Trade Idea: (1-2x) Long BTC @ 58.3k

→ Takes advantage of the expected retracement this week

→ Take Profit @ 60k, 61.4k

→ Stop Loss @ 57.5k

→ Follow up: Short trades at take profit levels (following a strong reaction)

Use leverage at your own risk. Always use stop losses.

💡 Trade Idea: (1-2x) Long BTC @ 56k and 54k

→ #1: Over $1B in longs liquidated going down to the 56k key level

→ #2: Benefit from a low target in the event of a flash crash @ 54k

→ Take Profit @ 57k, 60k

→ Stop Loss: Below wick lows of entry at key levels

Use leverage at your own risk. Always use stop losses.

ETH Summary

• Similar to BTC, we’re looking for a small retracement ahead, while allowing for potential downside within our range.
• As ETH is an underperforming asset,
• Weekly Target Highs: 2595, 2685 (short opportunities + take profits)
• Long Entry Opportunities: 2400, 2340 (look for a reaction at these levels for confirmation)

Altcoin Summary

• We’re wary of altcoin trades this week due to uncertainty into September.
• Keep an eye out for long opportunities on blue-chip alts as BTC hits its key low targets for the week. 👀 

Thanks for reading today’s publication! We crave your feedback — got any suggestions or questions for us?

Get in touch with at contact@tagoresearch.com or pop us a message on X at @tagoresearch.

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Disclaimer: The PokPok Pulse newsletter and any curated information provided by Tago Research are not intended as Financial Advice but as educational content for insights into the crypto market. Only invest what you can afford to lose. We are not liable for any losses incurred.