Hey there, Monday’s Pulse is back, baby! 🔥 

Forget the weekend - all eyes were on Trump's jaw-dropping Bitcoin Conference speech! 😱 

The former crypto skeptic nearly turned the event into a full-blown rally, not quite leading to our exact expectations!

But hold onto your seats, because next week's economic rollercoaster will be even wilder! 🎢 The upcoming data could make or break the Fed's rate cut swiftness.

Will the rocket boosters engage or will we hit some turbulence? 🌪️

WHAT’S HAPPENING? ⌛️

• Bitcoin Conference: Trump announces a lousy “Bitcoin Strategy”, Senator Lummis puts a cherry on top 🍒 🏦 
• Harris & Democrats push for a pro-crypto stance 👀 
• The Global Liquidity Index on the Spotlight 🔦 
• STRATEGY: Consolidation before The BIG Rally?🔥 🧐 
• (July 31) Fed Interest Rate Decision 🚨
• (August 2) Non-Farm Payrolls 🚨
• (August 2) Unemployment Rate 🚨

Today’s Micro-Lecture: Dealing with a Bleeding Market for Portfolio Growth✨ 

Got a lecture idea? Let us know!

The Impacts: Galore ⭐️ 

Ethereum Spot ETF 🎇

As the Ethereum Spot ETF continues to an average of $1B a day in total volume (which is very impressive); flows remain negative for the week. As mentioned, these outflows are only from the Grayscale ETHE, which is not surprising, as the removal of ETHE's six-month lock-up period has led to redemptions from investors who were previously unable to exit their positions.

As more funds flow into these products over time, they could help offset the impact of ETHE outflows on the overall Ethereum ETF market.

When might we see these outflows settle?

The asset loss of Grayscale's Ethereum Trust (ETHE) is occurring at a faster rate compared to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) since the launch of spot ETFs. This suggests that selling pressure on ETHE may subside sooner, allowing inflows from the new spot Ethereum ETFs to have a more significant positive impact on the market.

Bitcoin Conference: Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve Asset 🔥 

The reason we say Trump didn’t quite meet our expectations the other day was because he did not mention any specifics of the US Gov. purchasing Bitcoin in any way.

He also almost turned his speech into a political rally, going off topic to discuss his rivals a little too much, and not enough about Bitcoin! (Our personal opinion 😄)

Here’s a TLDR of Trump's Speech at the Conference:

• Create a US Gov. Strategic BTC Stockpile (no mention of any value or purchase plan)
• US Gov. will keep 100% of Bitcoin it currently owns (~200,000 BTC) 🔥 
• Prevent any CBDC from occurring if he is elected
• The USA will be the crypto capital of the world
• BTC is not threatening the dollar, the current US Gov. is threatening the dollar
• BTC will surpass the market cap of gold at some point
• Create a BTC/Crypto Council run by pro-crypto members

Senator Lummis made a key announcement following Trump’s speech regarding a Bitcoin Reserve Bill where the US Gov. will buy 1,000,000 BTC over 5 years and hold it for at least 20 years. 🚀 🚀 🚀 

For us, this seems more bullish than anything Trump said, or had forgotten to say during his political rant!

Harris & The Democrats scramble for a pro-crypto stance 😅💨 

Following the BTC Conference and since Kamala Harris took over Biden’s place in the presidential race — they've been rushing to change their stance on crypto for the extra votes.

They’ve been approaching crypto companies and exchanges recently showing interest in “resetting” relations and building a more pro-crypto stance.

This “political” competition towards crypto is great as we might see a further push for more meaningful regulations and bills coming in-favour of the crypto community! 🔥 

US Economic Events this week 📊 

(July 31) Fed Interest Rate Decision

This Interest Rate decision will not be as key as it is already expected (~95.3%) that there will not be an easing.

However, we are anticipating September’s ease and looking at any Fed Comments and the rest of the week’s economic reports to suggest any HARD eases which may result in more risk-on liquidity in the market — and a potential unlock of the real bull market! 🧨🧨 

(August 2) Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate

• What this means: Non-farm payrolls is a key economic indicator that measures the number of jobs added or lost in the U.S. economy over the previous month, excluding farm workers. The Unemployment Rate is similarly, the amount of unemployment in the economy.
• Prior/Forecast:
  • NFP: 206K Prior / 185K Forecast
  • Unemployment: 4.1% Prior / 4.1% Forecast
• Bullish Thesis: Under-expected NFP and Over-expected Unemployment results in a weaker dollar, leading to potential crypto pumps. If these negative reports are consistent, a hard Fed Rate Cut may be suggested 🚀 🌙 
• Bearish Thesis: The converse would lead to a stronger dollar, potential weakness in crypto and a softer Rate Cut for the Fed later in the year. 🐻 

As seen below, the unemployment rate has been consistently increasing, not being this high since November 2021. An over-expected increase to 4.2% would be bullish crypto for the end of the year as a more brute rate cut is likely to happen.

A Quick Strategy Update 💆 

We intend this part of Monday to be easy. You’ve got a whole week ahead of you — we don’t want to knock you out! Here’s our key idea for the week:

• We held off any trades during the weekend and Trump’s speech — we prefer making trades that don’t require us to have our eyes glued to the screen 🤣 
• BTC: Given the lack of Delta (longs minus shorts) causing bearish divergences — unless we get some serious longs coming in next week, we’re looking at an SFP (taking the low) of 63k before continuing to a healthy upside. This doesn’t mean we won’t go higher beforehand, as I write, we’re at 69.5k and the next high would look to come in at 71.2k and then potentially swipe the low in the coming days. This would be the healthiest option for BTC to play, I’d only look for longs at the low rather than placing any shorts here — there’s too much “news volatility” which could make things go up when they should be going down 🤣 

Keep in mind: A key reason not to short the market right now is the big, fat level of $20-30B in liquidations awaiting us. 🧲 🧲 

The best way to play this is to buy spot BTC now, and save some reserve cash to buy in at potential lows (63k, 58k etc.)

• ETH: With ETHs dropping last week, it’s going to look pretty choppy next week with not much going on. With a potential drop for BTC, we’re looking at ETH ranging from 3,100 to 3,600 unless things turn around. (Which is a pretty big range!)

Pro Tip: When you’re fairly confident an asset might range with a certain volatility, you could make use of Grid Bots on a CEX to capitalise on the range — Other Strategy Ideas:

→ Options: Iron Condor

→ Options: Iron Butterfly

→ Dual Investment Strategy on Centralised Exchanges (e.g Bitget/Bybit/Kucoin)

→ Yield Farming: e.g ETH/USDC Concentrated Pool with given range

• Altcoin Exposure: Altcoin Indexes are at critical resistances, with potential drops for BTC, we’re still maintaining a medium exposure on alts, other than those with more strength or that work for us in DeFi Yield Farms. Other than short trades, It’s currently still better to hold BTC & ETH than most alts.

Global Liquidity Index — and what it means for crypto! 👀 

You might have seen this chart in the past — the Global Liquidity Index.

First of all, what the 🐔 is the GLI? 🤔 

The Global Liquidity Index (GLI) measures how easily credit flows in global markets. Think of it as the financial world's "mood ring" – when it's up, money's flowing freely for investments.

GLI has recently begun its next upward trend, which could mean that the next few years might be locked into a “bull mode” for crypto and stocks!

GLI & BTC: A Curious Correlation 🧐

• When GLI rises, BTC often follows suit
•  Example: March 2023 saw GLI and BTC prices both surge
• Over the past year, BTC has closely mirrored central bank balance sheet changes

But Wait, There's More! 🚦

• Correlation ≠ Causation: Other factors like regulations and market sentiment play huge roles
• GLI is more of a "smoke detector" than a crystal ball
• Fundamentally, Bitcoin is driven by Supply and Demand, an increase in Global Liquidity means an increase in demand as more money is flowing towards risk-on investments.
• This is Key for Alts — Current bleeding is due to this lack of liquidity in the crypto market, yet we’re still seeing massive VC investments and token unlocks, leading to high inflation in projects (and bleeding🩸🩸)

Micro-Lecture 📝 

Dealing with a Bleeding Market for Portfolio Growth ✨ 

The current state of the altcoin market is absolutely terrible. We’ve been in an altcoin underperformance for the past 2 years, and the last few months have taken a toll on everyone holding altcoins.

You must understand that not every moment is the best time to invest in alts or certain risk exposures.

You must employ some strategies to stay on top in this market — and not bleed your entire gains this year (like some of us have!)

Here are some Personal Hedge Fund Strategies which you can use now in a bleeding market:

Portfolio Rebalancing to reduce risk exposure 

It’s key that you reduce your risk exposure during a ( clearly ) bleeding market. Let’s say you might allocate 50% of your portfolio to alts in a green market, but only 25% in a bleeding market. Not only will this reduce your drawdowns, it will allow you to use the extra 25% on investments that will be less volatile, and… make you more money!

Hedging with Options

You can use a small % of your portfolio towards protective puts (e.g. 2.5%) to make your portfolio more robust, and we highly recommend this. This means that if the market has a tank, your losses will be limited, or you might even make a profit!

(This could be it’s own presentation, actually!)

Would you enjoy a Micro-Lecture w/ Video on Protective Puts and uses in Crypto Hedging

It's a YES or NO question dammit!

Yes, please! No thanks. I have another suggestion, actually!

Holding Stablecoins to Reduce Volatility

 Now. I’ve heard a few people comment that being in stables is a waste of time and inefficient use of capital, but we disagree completely. If you’re looking to run as a Personal Hedge Fund, never should you have 0% stables in your portfolio, especially in a bleeding market. You need stablecoin reserves to not only reduce your portfolio volatility but also take opportunities when the market comes around. If your wallet is down 70% after a bleed because you didn’t scale into stables, you’ll be pretty reluctant to invest in any other potential bleeds!

Focus on assets with real long-term value

Genuinely, the crypto market has messed us all up in the past year. We’ve gone straight from the depths of the bear, to unrealistic valuations for new projects and fundamentally little value. The market has turned into an airdrop and meme market. And this is no way to make real money. It’s important that during a bleeding market, you stay away from any projects that: Have high token unlocks, a large maximum supply, seem unreasonably priced (this is a hard one to gauge), have no revenue, real TVL, or profits. Crypto runs on hype and narrative, but when the market is bleeding, that isn’t going to hold up your bags. You need to think wisely about the alts you allocate in your portfolio. If this means us having to remind you of key Token Unlock events each week, we will. 😉 

(Again, another one we could go deeper on)

Yield Farming in a Bleeding Market

Yield Farming is tough in this market, we won’t lie to you! But what’s key to keep in mind is that there are different types of farms with different risk levels. In a bleeding market, you might invest more into low-risk and blue-chips: Liquid Restaking (ETH/SOL) and blue-chip LPs (ETH, SOL, AVAX etc.). Then, completely dependent on your approach to risk, you may allocate some into higher risk, higher yield farms, for example, our WELS/ETH farm on ExtraFi (Base) is earning over 1.5% a day, yet is also bleeding! Does this mean we’re drawing down? Yes, and we’re prepared for that! Does it mean we’ll be at a loss forever? No, and we’re prepared for that. However, it is important that when having conviction in high-risk farms, you do set a limit to where you do stop — it’s not going big or go home time when you’ve got bad risk management!

Either way, Yield Farming puts your capital to work when the market is red. Not only this, it diversifies your revenue streams in ways you might not have imagined and introduces you to potential gold for future investments.

Researching DeFi and Yield Farming opportunities should be on everyone’s mind if they want to gauge all that crypto has to offer!

(We’ll be making a few video presentations in our next micro-lectures on Yield Farming, stay tuned! 🥳 )

Thanks for reading today’s publication! We crave your feedback — got any suggestions or questions for us?

Get in touch with at contact@tagoresearch.com or pop us a message on X at @tagoresearch.

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Disclaimer: The PokPok Pulse newsletter and any curated information provided by Tago Research are not intended as Financial Advice but as educational content for insights into the crypto market. Only invest what you can afford to lose. We are not liable for any losses incurred.